Stumps on Day 4 of the test between SA and Australia saw Australia on 156-4 after South Africa’s 1st-innings total of 425/9 declared.
Afternoon Session:
The afternoon session belonged firmly to South Africa.
Australia, having resumed the day in deep trouble, were quickly skittled out for a paltry 99 runs in their 1st innings. Kagiso Rabada and Wiaan Mulder cleaned up the tail, giving South Africa a colossal 326-run lead.
South Africa captain Temba Bavuma enforced the follow-on, forcing Australia to bat again.
Kagiso Rabada struck early by dismissing Nic Maddinson for 8. However, Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne provided some resistance with a 92-run partnership.
Off-spinner Simon Harmer broke through before the end of the session, trapping Labuschagne and later dismissing Beau Webster to keep South Africa firmly in the driver’s seat heading into the final day.
Scenarios for Day 5
Australia closed Day 4 at 156/4, trailing South Africa by 170 runs with 6 wickets remaining.
Scenario A: South Africa Win (Most Likely)
The goal is to take the remaining 6 Australian wickets before Australia can wipe out the 170-run deficit and set a chase.
The South African attack (led by Rabada, Jansen, and Harmer) need to take early wickets on Day 5. If they bowl Australia out for less than 326 total runs (170 more from their current position), South Africa wins by an innings. If Australia manage a small lead, SA will easily chase down a low target in the remaining overs.
Scenario B: Australia Win (Unlikely Miracle)
The goal for Australia will be to build a target high enough to bowl South Africa out in the fourth innings.
Travis Head (currently unbeaten) and the lower middle order bat out a massive portion of Day 5. Australia would need to post 350–400+ runs in their 2nd innings (requiring another 200–250+ runs on Day 5 – see below for those numbers) to set South Africa a trickier fourth-innings chase of around 100–150+ with minimal overs remaining, then bowl SA out quickly.
Scenario C: Draw
Here we are hoping for the Hand of God to invoke Survival / Rain intervention.
Australia’s remaining batters need to block out 90 overs on Day 5, losing few to no wickets, absorbing the pressure, and ensuring the match ends without a result.
Or if significant rain or bad light halts play on Day 5, preventing South Africa from taking the final 6 wickets in time.
Australia 2nd Innings Batting Stats:
- Nic Maddinson: 8 (10 balls, 2×4) — c Rickelton b Rabada
- Matt Renshaw: 11 (23 balls, 2×4) — c Breetzke b Harmer
- Marnus Labuschagne: 39 (98 balls, 4×4) — lbw b Harmer
- Travis Head: 87* (138 balls, 9×4) — Not Out
- Beau Webster: 8 (33 balls) — lbw b Harmer
- Scott Boland: 2* (23 balls) — Not Out (Nightwatchman)
South Africa 2nd Innings Bowling Stats:
- Kagiso Rabada: 11–1–30–1 (Econ: 2.73)
- Marco Jansen: 9–1–14–0 (Econ: 1.56)
- Simon Harmer: 18–4–47–3 (Econ: 2.61)
- Wiaan Mulder: 9–1–47–0 (Econ: 5.22)
- Aiden Markram: 7–1–18–0 (Econ: 2.57)
Australia’ Remaining Batters Test Averages:
| Player Name | Batting Average |
|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 55.69 |
| Travis Head | 42.48 |
| Alex Carey | 34.64 |
| Mitchell Starc | 20.03 |
| Pat Cummins | 17.29 |
| Josh Hazlewood | 11.60 |
| Scott Boland | 8.33 |
The above table imputes a possible 190 runs in averages that could be added to Australia’s current score of 156 giving a POTENTIAL 346 runs which would impute a win for Asutralia. At present Head is on DOUBLE his average and Boland on 25% of his average.
